9-6 last week. 1-0 this week. 57-34-1.
Extended Line Play
I positively LOVE alot of the lines this week, so let’s just dive in.
Seahawks (-7) at Panthers – So the Super Bowl winning team that couldn’t win this exact game by more than 5 last year is expected to win this year by more than seven. The Seahawks have fallen off more than the Panthers. The gap has narrowed. Just….why? Take the home dog points and thank me later. Also, if you have around 60 fantasy points you could donate to me that would be awesome. Seahawks 20, Panthers 16. Time to see if a locker room that is financially guaranteed not to stick together past this season has the maturity to hold down the fort and continue to win.
Lions (-3.5) at Falcons (London) – 9:30am? I’m sorry. Did you have something better to do? It is the Falcons, after all. You can simply not watch, but then you might miss the dominant defensive line eat through the porous Atlanta O-line and eat Matt Ryan alive. Bangers and mash, anyone? Lions 27, Falcons 13. If Detroit is any good, this shouldn’t be close.
Rams (+7) at Chiefs – Lauded deservedly for a big win in San Diego (which has absolutely no real home field advantage, but let’s move on), people tend to forget one thing about Andy Reid: When the NFL landscape blows smoke up Andy’s ass, he has a tendency to blow it back the following week. St. Louis’ defensive line can set the tone early by stuffing Charles and forcing Alex Smith to go toe to toe with their frisky offense. He might win, but he won’t dominate. Chiefs 23, Rams 20.
Ravens (-3) at Bengals – The Ravens are a top 5 team until further notice. Everything they did has worked out so far. Steve Smith is playing like a Pro-Bowler. Justin Forsett has single-handedly saved their running game and allowed them to hold leads, and what used to be a big name defense has been quietly rebuilt. They could be doing better at tight end, and if Smitty runs out of gas, they’re in trouble, but you can’t tell me you see the Bengals, who can’t do ANYTHING on offense if AJ Green isn’t stretching the field, are going to suddenly figure it out and get a win. Ravens 30, Bengals 17. Watch Giovani Bernard vs. an eight man box, and tell me why I didn’t trade him earlier.
Dolphins (-6) at Jaguars – I think it’s time for the Jaguars, who have everything to gain by trying as many things as possible with their new QB toy, to become the frisky underdog I had predicted them to be preseason. If you’re so down on the Jags and think even the Dolphins should be favored by 6 points on the road, tell me which Miami offensive player I should be fearing. Mike Wallace? Pffft ok, double him. Now, who?……… Hello?…… Jaguars 23, Dolphins 21.
Eagles (+3) at Cardinals – I think it’s been understated just how far ahead of the NFL Chip Kelly still is in year 2. His quarterback is not even playing well and they’re 5-1 with a divisional shutout. I would take them every time they’re getting points. Points aren’t hard to come by in Philly. Eagles 34, Cardinals 28. Maclin could have a huge day on Peterson, too. Watch how they move him around. Also, the over/under is only 48 in this game. How are either of these teams not scoring?
Bills (+3) at Jets – The Bills are 4-3 on one of the easiest schedules in the league, and the Jets are 1-6 after facing a murderer’s row of quarterbacks with their beleaguered secondary. With their defensive backfield no longer in jeopardy, expect the front seven to take this game over. Kyle Orton may be hospitalized in this one. Jets 20, Bills 13.
Colts (-3.5) at Steelers – Do yourself a favor and ride Indy until these likes get to the 7-8 points they should be. Indy is the 2nd best team in the league behind Denver, and the gap is closing by the week. People have forgotten how good of a defensive coach Chuck Pagano is, and now that he finally has the defense he wants, ignore the blue unis and see if you can see some old Ravens film in how hard they hit. Ahmad Bradshaw has looked great, their tight ends are a threat on every down, and Luck is…. well y’know… Colts 34, Steelers 20. The Colts should spank the Steelers if they’re as good as they’ve looked.
Packers (+1) at Saints – I know the Saints have a wonderful home dome advantage, but… I mean…. you’ve seen them, right? Graham half-assing on routes, different backfield injuries every week, lots of turnovers, horrible defense, Colston’s a step slower, and they’re favored? I think the Saints have lost their groove. They’re going to have to rebuild this offense. Cooks is part of the solution, as is Graham when healthy, but the rest of the guys can’t win matchups on their own. Aaron Rodgers is going to love playing indoors almost as much as Drew does. Packers 33, Saints 24.
Bears (+7) at Patriots – Sucker’s bet. Everyone wants you to believe that Jay Cutler will have the masterful performance he had in San Francisco. Even if he does, why does that mean he’s winning, or even coming close for that matter, to beating Brady and Belichick at home. I know they’ve had their flounders this season, but Chicago’s defense isn’t going to suddenly come together and take away checkdowns to the backs and tight ends. Brady operates within the cover 2 shell better than anyone. Patriots 29, Bears 20.
Other Winners – Buccaneers, Texans, Browns
Tie Watch – Steve is tempted to go Birdwatch for the second week in a row, but settled for Titans-Texans. I’m going with Bills-Jets.