We’ll have plenty of time to talk. Let’s bang these out and debate them later.
As I write this, the LeVeon Bell holdout still looms large, and appears will carry significantly into the season, which I don’t think either side of that negotiating table was prepared for. When it eventually ends and Bell returns, he will have to contend with remarks like these from the guys blocking for him. Always remember this about teams with high powered offenses on paper like the Steelers: the back makes the spread. Pittsburgh can spread you out because you have to worry about Bell cutting you up inside either on the ground or in the passing game. Without that, and really without ANY other major strength, Pittsburgh just doesn’t have the look to me of a power player in the 2018 season. I still think the Steelers will grab a wild card, but the 2018 season will be exactly the kind of bumpy ride that will have them battle tested for the playoffs.
Between the laughably bad Browns (and if you REALLY want a good laugh, pair your HBO Hard Knocks viewings with Michael Lombardi’s GM Street on The Ringer, where he has undressed Hue Jackson on a weekly basis with each episode) and the “we-believe-in-our-quarterback-no-really-we-do-see?-look-really-we-do” Ravens (who will be benching Flacco to unload his hideous contract the first chance they get whether it sinks their season or not), there’s really only one team in this division that isn’t in upheaval, and it’s the one team everyone mocked in the offseason for not causing one. If anything, it’s the Bengals’ offense that’s impressed me the most in this preseason, and not Pittsburgh. They have two backs that can do everything, an All-Pro tight end when upright, and the one top-flight receiver no one is talking about anymore. Laugh at Dalton all you want, but this team has balance, playmakers, stability and a (+850) vig staring you in the face with a floor of finishing 2nd (Yes, second, because they know how to beat the Ravens). My first division winner is an upset. I’m taking the Bengals to win the AFC North.
Let me preface my prediction of the Texans to miss the playoffs with the fact that I absolutely despise Bill O’Brien as a coach in every humanly way possible, have never bought into the hype of anyone on this team other than DeAndre Hopkins, and didn’t bat an eye when DeShaun Watson tore the league up for 10 days last year. Other than that, the team ain’t that bad. However, the notion that this team is going to be balanced and well-coached and shoot to the moon based on those highlights from last year is preposterous. Houston CANNOT block ANYONE, and in this division that is going to matter. It will cost them at least one of the Titan games, it will definitely cost them the opener at the Pats, and it may cost them both Jaguar games if that front seven is as good as it looks.
The other thing you need to keep in mind when taking the Texans is the Belichick assistant rule: everyone who’s coached under Bill thinks they’re Bill and gets fired because they’re not. That means you can flush any hopes of Bill O’Brien or Matt Patricia doing anything with their jobs down the toilet. The exception? The guy who put on pads for him in Mike Vrabel. Think of it this way: most coaches grow up on one side of the ball before their head coaching gig, and don’t really get to see football from all angles. Vrabel in his playing career has. He suited up on offense, defense, and several special teams units as a player, and will bring a true global HEAD coaching perspective (and multiple facets of Bill’s tutelage instead of just one) that alot of coordinators fail to reach.
I don’t think Tennessee can win it all, but you really have to scour them to find a weakness that will stop them in the regular season other than Mariota’s durability and arm strength. The Titans are a power team on both sides of the ball that with the addition of Malcolm Butler and development of Adoree Jackson have a vicious secondary, one that I think will be the best in the league (watch Adoree Jackson close on Juju Smith-Schuster on this drag route on 3rd and 4 and stop him before the sticks). At +300 to win the division and nothing monumental in their way, I think the Titans as your AFC South champs are a nice bet.
Obviously the Patriots are taking the AFC East barring a meteor landing in Foxboro, and even then you’d have to talk me out of it. By the way, the O/U is 11, and the Pats haven’t won less than 11 games in a decade. You can’t tell the story of the Belichick dynasty without contextualizing it in just how atrocious the rest of this division has been in that span. Frankly, it might be the worst it’s ever been this year, as the Dolphins and Bills are arguably 2 of the 3 worst teams in the NFL.
The upside here is that a runaway division like this means a team floats up to 2nd place, and that team not only retains huge odds to make the playoffs this year but a mountain of upside with a franchise quarterback in the making in Sam Darnold. I normally don’t bang on rookie QBs to do big things in year one, but Darnold has simply been that impressive. His pre-snap reads are to die for, and he’s already shown the swagger to fit balls into tight windows. The Jets have done virtually all the right things this offseason, selling high on Teddy Bridgewater before getting leveraged against the trade deadline (did we all forget what happened to Jimmy G last year? Reading the coverage on Bridgewater’s trade, apparently so), shelling out for a corner in Trumaine Johnson (giving them 3 that can play man-to-man [Claiborne, Skrine] similar to the Titans, and with better safeties to boot), and taking chances on the right players in Nathan Shepherd and Eric Tomlinson. Naturally, this pick is (+850) to make the playoffs for a reason. Tomlinson has to break out as a tight end and build off the few moments he had last year, and the defense will have to carry them when Sam doesn’t sparkle, but if there ever was a time to buy low on Sam Darnold to carry a team to the playoffs, this is it, and I’m taking them as the 6 seed over the Chargers to get in with a softer schedule and more upside. Welcome to the High Life, Jets fans.
You know what they say, “Don’t overreact to the preseason. Don’t trust your eyes.”
Well….too…fucking…bad
Because I saw THIS, and when THIS is being coached by a man who for 20 years got nothing less than the absolute best out of every QB he coached (not to mention simply being 9th all-time on the NFL wins list), you can damn sure bet on it (and for context, note that THIS happened at the end of a half with the safeties already backed up for the 2-minute drill and he STILL threw it over EVERYONE). The Kansas City Chiefs are winning the AFC West hands down. Take the over. Take the vig. Thank me later. Andy Reid will be Coach of the Year (+960). Remember when the league was scared of Andy Reid coaching Michael Vick? Wait till you see him with his hands on this guy. Yes, they overpaid Sammy Watkins, and yes the defense will have some work to do, but this offense has mismatches everywhere and can control the ball with the pass, and they’ll be the most consistent thing going week to week.
This leaves the question of the Chargers, who I’ve decided to keep as a 7 seed for now. I understand the bandwagon, but understand several things first: 1) Philip Rivers has lost virtually every big game he’s ever played in, but because he has an exuberant alpha male stench we let him get away with it, 2) For all the “explosiveness” they allegedly have on offense, they have nothing at tight end with Hunter Henry out for the year and nothing behind Melvin Gordon if he gets hurt again, and even then I don’t think they have the protection on the right side of the line to hold up for big plays, 3) For all the Derwin James hype, he’s not starting, and their best corner in Casey Hayward was getting routinely beat man to man last year. I don’t think they can press on teams defensively and must play from ahead. There’s enough talent and the division is open enough for them to get in, but I absolutely do not buy their contender hype. Stay away.
What will float them up to 2nd in the division is the upheaval of the other two teams. I don’t want to say the Jon Gruden hire will be a spectacular failure, but if you give a man that much money, that much power, and most importantly a WHOLE DECADE to figure it out, you basically give him the autocracy to throw away the first 1-2 years to catch up on the league and mold the team from scratch in his image. This means not only was Khalil Mack up for trade, but eventually EVERY household name on the roster will be too, including Derek Carr once Gruden has his sights on a college QB. Ironically, as questionable as Carr’s contract was at the time, $25M a year for a guy like him doesn’t sound so bad anymore, and I wouldn’t be surprised if someone ponied up for him during the season if they start off abysmally. The Broncos will also be working in LA’s favor, as their last two drafts have been atrocious, they made the single worst free agency move in giving Case Keenum big money, and have a general manager whose ego is outsize of taking accountability for any of it. Stare at their defense all you want, this team ain’t moving the ball, and if you don’t think John Elway will impulsively shake things up during the season to distance himself from his own mistakes, then you don’t know John Elway. The guy manages the team as if he were still the star of the show, and it will be fascinating to watch these two franchises race to the bottom, Oakland from an ego on the sideline, Denver from one in the luxury suites. Vance Joseph will be the first coach fired (+650) because he’ll be the bad coach with the most impulsive management to do it early.
I don’t think there’s any way around the Rams winning the NFC West for the 2nd year in a row. On paper, there should be some assertion of a lack of chemistry, but NFL coverage has rivaled the Kama Sutra in bending over backward to assure us all that Sean McVay, despite not being the first or last offensive genius to grace us with his presence in recent years, is the exception to every coach as young and/or successful as he’s been from regression to the mean. Betting against the Rams is essentially tagging McVay as Chip Kelly all over again, and as much as I’d like to again pat myself on the back for pointing out how fraudulent his coaching acumen was from the start, McVay clearly has shown an ability to adapt in-season that Kelly never even approached the humility to try.
Side Note: George Carlin always said that Germany lost WW2, but fascism won. I’ll always say Chip Kelly failed in the NFL, but his ideas on cardiovascular conditioning, individualized player nutrition, playing with speed, bringing RPOs to the NFL, and trying to crack the opponent’s fundamentals over tricking them have all won. Chip just didn’t have a second act after everyone caught up to his first, which is the reason guys like Doug Pederson who bring nothing original to the table win with their big picture management skills while guys like Chip Kelly who actually innovate from the ground up fail to last. Sean McVay IS the exception because to this point he has demonstrated both. Kyle Shanahan ain’t far behind.
Alas, Shanahan and the Niners are in fact behind, and in my eyes are a year away from any real success. It appears, however, that most of the betting public have caught on to this and have hammered their under, something I never thought would have happened during their winning streak in December. They’ve made several curious moves contradictory to their hype: 1) They signed an aging corner in Richard Sherman who doesn’t fit their scheme at all and is coming off an Achilles rupture, 2) The “no talent” team Jimmy G carried through December saw Marquise Goodwin get a 3 year extension while 3) letting Carlos Hyde walk for Jerick McKinnon. I like McKinnon, but his contract made him the 3rd highest-paid RB in the league before he was lost to IR with an injury, 4) Giving a $48M contract to Weston Richburg, who anchored one of the worst O-lines in the NFL for four years with the Giants while getting routinely pushed for his job by CFL find Brett Jones. I love Jimmy G as much as anyone. He has Montana-like footwork, and I’m not saying that to hype him. He’s just going to need a year. We all politely forgot the several interceptions he threw along with all those highlights, and if the team he “carried” was really that bad, there shouldn’t have been as many re-signings as they’ve had this year.
If you’re looking for a feisty underdog this year for good teams to trip over, the Seahawks are for you. Seattle is taking a year off, and in this era of rookie contracts becoming the opiates of roster management and 3 year cycles of fresh talent, I thought it wise for Seattle to stick with the draft and not overspend to stay afloat. They’ve already picked up starters in the Griffin brothers, will eventually smooth out the Earl Thomas situation with decent money, and actually have more depth in the backfield than people remember due to all the injuries they suffered at the position last year. I have a really hard time believing that even a bad Pete Carroll/Russell Wilson team will ever truly bottom out. Take their over. They might even sneak in if they stay healthy and 1-2 contenders don’t.
The NFC South is my strongest division, and it’s hard not to look at New Orleans as a Super Bowl favorite. I think they’ll be the #1 seed in the NFC and win the division. While Drew Brees certainly ticked down his production with age this year, he still offers tremendous balance against the team’s very real strengths in the run game and in the front seven. Most good New Orleans teams would simply outscore you. I think this one is much better in that it finally learned to play left-handed and can now both outscore you on Brees’ best day, and control a lead on the ground and with defense. Anyone who knows me knows I always say the Saints are really a running team disguised by a franchise quarterback. Brees is so accurate that the “short pass as an extended handoff” metaphor isn’t so metaphorical at all. It’s real.
I also think Atlanta will return to the playoffs as a Wild Card. As much as we all want this ship to sink under the comical decision making of Dan Quinn and Steve Sarkisian in each of the past two postseasons respectively, there’s too much talent on both sides of the ball here to bottom out. They still play indoors, still have studs on offense and defense, and get to munch on inferior teams in the NFC East and AFC North to keep their record to double-digit wins.
Hovering above the oblivion Tampa Bay is about to face are the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers practice what I call “bully-ball”. They’re a fun physical team to watch that can overwhelm their opponents and wear them out to win. That’s great for bad teams, but what happens when you stand up to a bully and punch them in the nose? Exactly, no plan B. Losing Norwell is going to hurt this team badly. I think the drafting of D. J. Moore will help the Panthers reinvent themselves at the skill positions on offense, and they’ll need this year out of contention to do it. C. J. Anderson looks like a nice complement to Christian McCaffrey, but their vastly different skill sets will lead to their being predictable in formations and not really help. Greg Olsen isn’t getting any younger or healthier either. I don’t think Carolina needs an overhaul, but they don’t have the horses to compete in a division as tough as this. Next year, K Cam?
If any team in the NFC East other than the Eagles had a real shot at the conference, this division would be far more interesting. What we have instead is a division that is Philly’s to lose provided nothing disastrous happens at the QB position in Wentz’s return to form. Will Wentz be ready? Will Foles falter? Will there be a hangover? Notice how none of these questions involve a threat from another team? Exactly. I for one welcome our new green overlords and don’t see much in the way of the Eagles winning the NFC East and getting a chance to defend their crown.
But what about your Giants?
Several things. Several. Fucking. Things.
- I’ll preface this by saying that I do in fact trust Dave Gettelman’s eye for toughness and talent. When he left for Carolina, the toughness left with it and the Panthers were in the Super Bowl 2 years later. You can bash him all you want for his contract negotiation skills, but he identified the holes on that team, filled them fast with guys from all over the map (UDFAs, trades, etc.), solved problems, and made the team better.
- ALL that being said, the front office has conducted itself with an uncharacteristic audacity this offseason that not only doesn’t belong on a 3-13 public relations disaster, but I dare say one that Wellington Mara would be embarrassed to share a media room with. It’s been worn on their sleeves that they think this team will bounce right back into contention despite changing both the offensive and defensive schemes and nearly 80% of the roster.
- Changing general managers should have an accompanying humility for past transgressions and a central tenet of having a long way to go, which means avoiding short-term flash and bombast like… idk… holding a press conference to casually declare that your first round pick was “touched by the hand of God”, having the team post his strength training workouts all offseason on Instagram, then publicly coming out later and stating you hope stardom doesn’t get to his head. I hate to say this, but lymphoma publicly shutting Dave Gettelman up might be the best thing that happens to the Giants this year, as it will keep the team out of the news and his bombast out of the way of the team’s recuperation towards legitimacy.
- With all the changes they’ve made, this organization continues to hide behind its quarterback with the manufactured belief from Super Bowl 46 that he can overcome anything to win football games. We are now in year 7 of “believing in Eli” whilst cramming him into a West Coast system for 4 of them and saddling him with empty drafts for 6.
When Eli calls it a career and they make his bust in Canton (and even I’ll say it’s debatable), history will remember him much more kindly as a franchise QB that was saddled by a bad organization and made stars out of mediocre pass catchers. Think of it this way: Washington has 3 Lombardi trophies, and no one thinks anything of their organization. Without Eli, the Giants have 2, and are 30 years removed from perennial contention. His postseason performances, and nothing else, are singlehandedly THE reason the Giants are perceived as part of the NFL bourgeoisie, and because stereotypical dick-swingers in the NFL will always be louder than he is, the organization has essentially hid behind him, posturing as intelligent and crafty when he performs, ducking out of sight when the team is bad. Nothing ends without ending badly, and I hope this isn’t quite it.
Washington, on the other hand are an interesting bunch. I can see 4-12 and an in-season firing as much as I can see Alex Smith steadily taking them to 10-6 and a wild card. They won’t turn many heads during the season, and I really don’t think they have enough young firepower on offense to consistently win. They’ll have 3-4 35+ outbursts, but they won’t be there at the end.
There’s two ways to make money in the NFL Futures this year: bet against the public on Dallas, and use the public’s shortening of the Packers odds to get better odds on the Vikings to beat them. Minnesota is in a unique position where they’ve picked so many good young players that they had the cap space to add the QB they need and go for broke. This team will fall apart after Cousins’ contract, but for now they are the best 53 man unit in the NFL and it’s prohibitively silly to think they are +110 in a division they kicked the shit out of last year. I still think the Packers will take a wild card and stay competitive, but if you can pit the two against one another and take the Vikes every time, do it.
The Bears are a year away, even with the Mack trade, even if the defense takes off, and even if Trubisky takes a reasonable jump. Take your 7-9 season and build off it. The Lions, however….
Welcome one and all, to the shitshow of the 2018 NFL season: Matt Patricia’s Detroit Lions. The first NFL team with a #metoo head coach. A #me, too, head, coach. His sexual assault indictment in 1996 surfacing months after his hiring will be part of a larger question I hope to answer: In the Twitter age, where we so rapidly consume new information and people, judge it to pieces, and shit them out, is it possible to lose your team and alienate the public before you even coach a single game? With a waning offensive line, a dearth of defensive talent, and an unforgiving division, Patricia is going to be tested early and often, and he’s already carrying baggage before he takes the field. If so much as a single new detail or allegation surfaces regarding Patricia, this season almost immediately goes to hell and cleaning Jim Caldwell out will look about as dumb as any coaching move in the past five years.
To recap:
AFC
- Patriots
- Chiefs
- Titans
- Bengals
- Steelers
- Jets
NFC
- Saints
- Vikings
- Rams
- Eagles
- Falcons
- Packers
3rd and 13 