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Week 10

4-2-1 since we last spoke 34-27-3 on the year Patriots (-8) vs. Seahawks – This line cannot be high enough. The Seahawks have been patting themselves on the back for squeaking by Buffalo and defending one of the dirtiest plays I’ve ever seen. Richard Sherman is full of shit, always has been, and has benefited disproportionately from being a receiver playing deep Cover 3 against a sideline. The fall of Nnamdi Asomugha after he left his system in Oakland should have tipped us off to this brand of bullshit, but like many things in America, we’re just not paying enough attention. The Pats are rested, angry, and ready to eat a hobbling Russell Wilson alive. Patriots 38, Seahawks 20. Panthers (-3) vs. Chiefs – The Chiefs don’t match up with an angry Panthers team at home at ALL. Kansas City won’t be able to space Carolina out if they’re wise to send the hounds early, and with Jonathan Stewart back to grind out the tough yards, KC’s pass rush shouldn’t be much of a factor. Barring a 3 interception meltdown from Cam, Carolina has started to sneak back into the playoff picture. Panthers 24, Chiefs 10. Texans (+1.5) at Jaguars – Jags are done. Take the points Texans 20, Jaguars 16. Buccaneers (+2.5) vs Bears – I’m not going to try to explain how a 2-6 team is a road favorite against a 3-5 team. I would be ready to pick against Detroit and Chicago alot ATS, […]

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Week 9

Oh, THERE you are. 5-2 in Week 8 5-2 in Week 7 3-3 in Week 6 30-25-2 overall. Back on track Let’s first congratulate Steve on his balls-first move to Salt Lake City. Count him among a growing number of my friends that have actively decided not to put up with NYC’s transformation into an uncivilized gourmet playground for rich kids and those genetically gifted enough to fuck them. Peace still matters. Get your space. All the shops and cafes will still be there when you visit. Jets (+4) at Dolphins – The Dolphins have an awful track record at home, and are still patting themselves on the back for getting by on outlying performances from their run game. Regression rears its ugly head for Miami, and the Jets get a great matchup to make a statement and save their season. Brandon Marshall should have his way with Byron Maxwell, and the defensive line shouldn’t be the easy pickings Jay Ayaji has seen in the past two weeks. If Sheldon Richardson wants to make some money, I suggest he show up on film this week. If you’re a Jet fan, you’re going to learn a lot about Todd Bowles tomorrow. Jets 24, Dolphins 20. Giants (-3) vs Eagles – I’m going to this game, so I gotta ride it. With the Eagles listing two of their DTs out for the game, the Giants should be able to devote more protection to the […]

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Week 6

17-18-2 after going 5-1-1 since we last spoke. Ravens (+3.5) over Giants – Anyone who thinks the Giants are bouncing back at home today has 1) not seen the Giants play in 2016 and 2) never seen the Giants play an inferior opponent at home. The Ravens will bring in a few new offensive concepts and Spagnuolo will just throw blitzers at it until he gives up 36 points and blames it on the pass rush. The Giants are the worst team in the league at the line of scrimmage, and you can take the points until they address this. Ravens 36, Giants 22.  Patriots (-9) over Bengals – The Bengals are absolutely done, and the Patriots are just getting started. The two TE set is going to dominate the league for at least the next eight weeks. People will eventually learn to match up a big corner on one of the TEs (think Aqib Talib on Jimmy Graham a few years ago) and scheme out the other with a double team, but Cincinnati has not shown they can keep up with anyone, and will likely get worn out by an attack like this. Patriots 37, Bengals 17. Cowboys (+4.5) over Packers – There are only 4 elite units in the NFL right now (Cowboys OL, Minnesota D, NE 2TE offense, Denver D), and you have to take them if they’re getting points. The Packers have shown you nothing other than they can complete the […]

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Week 5

odell

12-17-1 after going 4-3-0 since we last spoke. Giants (+7) over Packers – So long as the Giants have this trio of wideouts and think a full house backfield is a good idea against the Vikings’ front seven, they are going nowhere this year. The biggest misperception of Odell Beckham being out of control is that he’s some deviant on a team […]

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Week 4

8-14-1 after Week 3 Love the Bengals -7.5 tonight. Dalton's going to play angry. This is his kind of game: mental prowess over short-week fatigue — ArmorForFleek (@3rdand13) September 29, 2016 Let’s get further back on track after going 5-1-0 on my last six Seattle (-1.5) at NY Jets – This is a freebie. The Jets have absolutely no depth, and without Eric Decker today, Seattle can just shade the secondary Brandon Marshall’s way and pin Fitzpatrick into a bunch of mistakes. Even Seattle’s offensive line can’t offset that matchup. Seahawks 17, Jets 6.  Browns (+7.5) at Redskins – The Redskins shouldn’t be favored by more than 4 over anyone. After going 2/12 on 3rd downs in the red zone last week and STILL fucking winning a road game (has to be the first time in NFL history, I’m not even going to look it up). The Redskins offense has not changed at all in 3 seasons, and the Browns are already into their bag of tricks for Terrelle Pryor. Always bet against a bad team off a big win. Browns 20, Skins 19. Broncos (-3.5) over Buccaneers – I’m betting against Jameis Winston successfully navigating the Denver defense on the road on his first try and only giving 3.5 points? Thanks. Broncos 33, Buccaneers 17. Niners (+3) over Cowboys – I’m betting against Dak Prescott winning his first cross-country road game when he’s the best regression-to-the-mean candidate after his first three starts in NFL […]

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Week 2

alexsmith

2-8-1 after week 1 ATS. Let’s climb out of this hole. Buccaneers (+7) over Cardinals – I think the Cardinals are in real trouble. I love Bruce Arians, but he couldn’t beat a bunch of backups at home, and now he has a basketball team coming into his building. Tampa, while I don’t think they’re making the playoffs, are a team […]

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Week 1 and Season Predictions

afceast

We’re going to keep it simple this year. 8 picks this week against the spread for Week 1. 5 picks against the spread every Sunday thereafter. Quick picks for Mondays and Thursdays. Folie à Debut With all of the banter against the NFL regarding its unnecessary violence, I don’t know where to begin the argument against the unnecessary and illegitimate fight […]

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