Colts +2 over Texans (-110), UNDER 48.5 (+100)
I think this is going to be a much lower scoring game than people expect, and I actually think that favors the Colts. People will cite Houston’s pass rush at home as a reason to take them, but I don’t think they’ll have a lot of opportunity to do that, as I believe Eric Ebron will have a field day against a back seven that can’t cover him. Because of this, Andrew Luck won’t have to fire on all cylinders to save the team, but rather he’ll be able to control the pace of the game on offense and take a lot of pressure off the rest of the team to keep up. When you get the better coach, better QB, and the points, take ’em. Colts 23, Texans 16.
Dallas -2.5 over the Seahawks (-110), UNDER 42.5 (+105)
In the context of some laughable playoff matchups on this weekend in recent years, boy oh boy is Fox glad to have this one fall in their lap. Seattle, as I stated preseason, was going to be a tough out all year. I didn’t think it would get them ten wins, but I also wasn’t expecting so many other NFC teams to wilt out of their way either. Alas, such is the life of a bully team, and this matchup is essentially asking who the bigger bully is.
One thing about bully v. bully games: they’re never close, and we merely find out who the bigger bully is. Seattle’s playoff pedigree deserves to be respected, but all the real meat up front in this game is on the other team. Furthermore, unlike years past, the Amari Cooper trade gives this Dallas team more of a plan B than they’ve had in the past. If you matched up physically with the Cowboys, they had no backup strategy and you beat them. I’m in the minority in thinking Dak Prescott has been one of the most improved players in the league this year, and I think this game is going to send a message to the rest of the NFC that the Cowboys should be taken seriously. If nothing else, they can kick some serious ass, and this game is essentially asking them to beat a team that plays a B+ version of what they do at home. Even Jason Garrett can’t screw that up…. right? Cowboys 28, Seahawks 10.
3rd and 13 