Divisional Saturday

2-2 WC weekend, 1-3 ATS

Colts (+5) at Chiefs, Under 55.5

What doesn’t this game have? Elements, revenge, quarterbacks, line play, history, you name it. Time to see if the young gun Mahomes is truly the savior of a Kansas City fan base that’s been barbecued more times in January than spare ribs. Time to see if Andrew Luck is all the way back from the injury. Time to see if Andy Reid’s offense finally has the gun to fire off in the postseason. Time to see if Frank Reich is the best plan B any team has had in the 21st century (including Nick Foles, if you account for the prospective drop-off from plan A). While the expected snowfall does favor the offense, I’m wary of taking the over in these games because while defenses will have a tough time covering, much of the passing game will be in bounds and keep the clock moving. If you don’t score a TD going vertical, you’re going to slow down to secure your footing and you’re going to be tackled. While the Colts are as good a threat as any underdog to take out the Chiefs in their building. I think Patrick Mahomes, if he’s the BMF I think he is, will cement his MVP candidacy with a dominant performance today. Both defenses will struggle, and KC has more ways to score. Colts will be dangerous AF next year, but I think their wonderful ride ends here. Chiefs 28, Colts 27.

Cowboys (+7, ML +280) over Rams, Under 49 (-115)

Let’s have a word before we all anoint Sean McVay (blessed be his name) the once and future king of all things offense, particularly since his 35 year old position coaches are now being given head coaching gigs.

In a superbly incoherent article from Robert Mays of The Ringer, Mays somehow took McVay’s extreme use of 11 personnel (1TE, 3WR), something that was almost universally considered THE reason Ben McAdoo’s offense didn’t work with the Giants, and used it as a reason to heap praise. Call me kooky (or block me for pointing this out, as Mays did), but I’m pretty sure the Rams have significantly better talent than the Giants did during that span, and even if you disagree with that quantitatively, the Rams’ skill players are far more versatile. Do you honestly think Ben McAdoo WOULDN’T move Saquon Barkley around the formation if he had him? Of bloody course, he would, and he would remove Larry Donnell’s helmet from his rear end and replace him with Tyler Higbee in a nanosecond. It doesn’t make you a better coach. Decision-making, adaptation, and problem-solving make you a good coach. Everyone knows what the on-field tools are. We have tape.

This is, of course, not to say that Sean McVay is some farce. He’s wise beyond his years, can clearly connect with players and lead men, has developed his quarterback in spades, and clearly has commanded the respect of his elders on his staff. He’s going to be a head coach in this league until I’m in a nursing home. I just think we’ve all politely ignored that the Rams are 3-2 since Thanksgiving (Wins: Cardinals, Niners, Lions. Losses to Eagles and Bears. Yep.) and have truly yet to adapt to a league that catches up with you in December and January. When you have a league that catches up to you schematically, you better be prepared to win physically.

Unfortunately for the Rams, they have the worst possible opponent for that situation. The playoffs are about what you do well, and Dallas has been able to build around their farce of a head coach with a physical identity. I’m alarmed even after a playoff win that the Cowboys are not being given their due for how well they’ve built both fronts in recent years, taking risks on players with injury histories that fell to them and betting on their facilities and doctors to rehab them into stars. The Rams should be favored, but they’re going to have to want this one more to win it, enduring the physical disadvantages they have up front to make the big plays the Cowboys can’t. Barring a complete defensive backfield breakdown from the Cowboys, I think they’ll be able to key on the predictable nature of the Rams’ personnel package, physically control this game, and win it. Lastly, in true blogger fashion, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Rams were exposed here. I’m taking the monster upset here. Cowboys 30, Rams 13.

By the way, NFL Films bypasses you for Kevin Clark in television spots for a reason.